Why I Like the Luis Arráez Trade

Let's just be honest with each other. The situation in Miami is horrendous. They not only have rolled out one of the worst on-the-field products, but the farm system isn't better… yet. Selfishly, I'm eating it up. If you recall, my biggest future of the year is on the Marlins to go under 78.5 wins, and I predicted them as potentially one of the worst teams in baseball, which appears to be fast-tracked. And like any other small content creator, I love being right. 

The trade of Luis Arráez was not a huge surprise in my eyes, although I didn't think he'd be the first to go. Let's just say the optics are not good. The Twitter-verse will claim "fleece" until the cows come home, mostly for clicks. It does look bad when you see the Marlins taking Arráez's contract down to the league minimum this year. Big picture, and the more I looked into it, the more I think Peter Bendix has some good things in motion. The Marlins shipped Pablo López, a fan favorite, for a new fan favorite and batting title winner Luis Arráez, who is now gone. Marlins fans have every right to be upset, but I believe the future will be bright.

So let's talk about why I like it. Rebuilding a franchise takes time and a lot of difficult decisions. Take the Orioles, for example. There were a lot of dark days to get to contender status, and the Marlins are taking notes. Bendix said, "When we got this offer on Luis—for a tremendous amount of young talent that we really think is going to be very helpful for us, long term—it was just something we couldn't walk past."

We just saw Luis Arráez's peak in 2023. He won a batting title and is undoubtedly the best hit tool in the MLB. But he only put up a 3.5 WAR. With the defensive limitations and little slug, that's as good as it will be. So, for him to tally a 3-3.5 WAR, he'll be winning the batting title, which won't happen every year. Sell high and build for long-term success.

This tells me the fire sale is on, and Bendix is willing to sell for a hefty price; we'll see some hauls coming to Miami. If you ask me, Jazz and Luzardo will be the next to go, and it's the right move. Luzardo will help a contender down the stretch and will make a fantastic 3-starter and high-end 2 like he did when Sandy was healthy. At this point, Jazz has become more of a problem with the lack of production-to-talent ratio, but that isn't to say someone won't take on the challenge. The Marlins can return a hefty amount to bolster the farm, sending these two off. 

With the Marlins' shocking 80-win season in 2023, they'll be sitting at pick #16 in the 2024 draft, and I love building the farm by shipping off a ton of assets. To me, the only untouchables will be Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez. So get after it.

Let's dive into the return. Yes, they took the salary down to the league minimum this season, but for good reason. The Padres team salary is huge, to no surprise. They'll be taking on all of Arráez's contract in 2025, but they needed to make a move to help them now and not break the bank. The Marlins have nothing to play for in 2024, so why not? The Marlins bring back RHP Woo-Suk Go, OF Dillon Head, 1B Nathan Martorella and OF Jakob Marsee, all top-10 prospects in the Padres organization, and a top-100 prospect in Dillon Head.

RHP Woo-Suk Go struggled in Spring Training coming over from the KBO and didn't make an immediate impact, but with a mid-90s fastball, the former closer can definitely be a good piece as he makes the adjustment to the MLB from the KBO, which we've seen is a learning curve in plenty of guys. 

OF and #88 prospect in baseball (according to JustBaseball), Dillon Head is off to a slow start in 2024, .237/.317/.366 and just 3/7 on stolen bases. His speed is off the charts, one of the fastest in MiLB and has a legitimate 70 SB upside and a great glove in CF. His knock? He needs more patience at the plate. His chase% has come down already, but he tends to get out of his go-zone and swing to put the ball in play and try to beat it out. Something you see a lot with this player archetype, but he has excellent gap-to-gap tools and can immediately be the best position player in the Marlins farm.

OF Jakob Marsee is off to a really slow start after a great 2023 campaign in High A. Only hitting only .177/.336/.318, but walking at a considerable clip with 19 BBs in 24 games and 12/13 in the stolen base category. Don't let the early struggles fool you; he is very near MLB-ready, and the Arizona Fall League MVP could be up by mid-August. Swiped nearly 50 bags last year, above average defensively in the outfield, and a good ceiling offensively, I love this piece.

1B Nathan Martorella, who has some ability to shift over to the corner outfield if needed, is off to a solid start to his 2024 campaign, hitting .292/.393/.427 with a 1:1 K:BB ratio. He could be a power-hitting lefty in the future, and the former Cal Golden Bear is a fantastic fourth piece of this deal.

Marlins fans, stay with it. It sucks to see the big pieces go, Peter Bendix has set the wheels in motion, and I'm really excited to see what they can bring back for some other pieces. The goal is to win a lot of games with not a lot of money, and this is how it starts. The farm will be getting so much better, and the future will be bright in Miami.