Back to the Future Part 3
Here it is, folks, the final part. Opening Day is right around the corner. I am more excited for this season than I have been in a long time. I’m going to preface this section before we dive in. It’s gross. It stinks, it smells, 95% of you will probably hate it, and you’ll think I’m a maniac. Betting on the worst team in baseball during the regular season is one thing, but I’m betting on one of the worst teams on a full-season future. Yes, you read that right; this column is all about the Oakland A’s.
Oakland A’s Over 57.5 Wins 1.5U
I am putting part of the blame for taking this on a good friend of the ODS Team, Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball, go follow him), for pushing so much A’s propaganda. But the more I dove in, and with some inspiration from watching Money Ball this week, as I always do before opening day, the more I like it. In 2023, this was one of the most bet on unders for any team total, and it wasn’t close. Only tallying 50 wins, a historic feat, and the under-the-hood numbers don’t do the A’s much justice either (49-113 Pythagorean win expectancy), but I see them turning a page this year. Even PECOTA projections think I have some validity to this claim, having the A’s projected at 64 wins. While I think that’s a bit high, I think 60 is very doable for this group.
There are a lot of things to be excited about with this group, and the makeup of the club this year is significantly better than in 2023. The offseason? Not sexy names, but solid players that are a significant step up to what they rolled out last year.
Ross Stripling, who has a career 3.96 ERA but is more than capable of a 1.5 WAR season, is serviceable. He doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, has a solid LOB%, and I like this move. Alex Wood is the other added arm that I like a lot. Take it with a grain of salt. He benefitted greatly from his tenure with the Dodgers and hasn’t been the same since. But, another strike thrower with solid strikeout upside and potential for another 1.5 WAR season. Which, again, rounds out this rotation nicely.
Moving to Mason Miller to the closer role, I absolutely love. Triple-digit fastball also features a true wipeout slider and a mid-90s cutter. The arsenal is for real, and he’ll fit in nicely in the closer spot. The bullpen should take the quantity load off, so he should stay healthy.
Luis Medina has some nasty stuff with a ++ changeup. He’ll need to hone in some control to be productive but there’s a very high ceiling there. With JP Sears and Paul Blackburn as your 3-4, this rotation is far above the dumpster fire they rolled out in 2023. Joe Boyle is also a name you should learn now. Standing 6’7, 240, sitting upper 90s with 102 in the tank, he can be a real contributor to the A’s, an X-Factor on the bump.
With Kyle Muller moving into a swingman role thanks to some rotation adds, that frees up the bullpen with guys like Zach Jackson and Scott Alexander.
I’m really focusing on the lineup in 2024. When you’re shooting for 58 wins, pitching isn’t going to be the make-or-break factor, although I do see improvement on the 2023 staff ERA of 5.48 (29th). For a team that ranked dead last in slash-line, RBI, and runs, I see the vision this year.
Esteury Ruiz finished 2nd in the MLB (1st in AL) in stolen bases with 67 (67/80), only behind NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., while being below-average in BA and OBP (.259/.309). I anticipate both of these improving in his second full season, and if he’s on base at a .325-.335 clip, he’ll easily swipe 70+ bags. I look at the 84% success rate, and that’s a big green flag for someone with wheels like Ruiz.
Zack Gelof is a stud in the making after slashing .267/.337/.504 with 14 HR in his first stint in the MLB. He’s a 20/20 player this year if not 25/25. I’m extremely high on him. Say what you will about the A’s; they’ve done a great job developing young bats.
Shea Langeliers is primed for a breakout after hitting 22 HR over 135 games in 2023. The 26-year-old has the tough task of being a top catcher, given how talented the position is in baseball right now, but he’s capable.
Lawrence Butler, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Nick Allen, JD Davis, Ryan Noda, and Aledmys Díaz round out the lineup. This team is really fun. To be honest, in 2023, A’s baseball was a miserable watch, but I love the young pieces, and it’ll be a team I frequently tune into in 2024. Not just because of the monetary implication but because I am genuinely excited to watch some of these young pieces. Looking up and down the roster, I find it hard to believe they’ll win less than 57 games, so we’re taking on the risk.
It’s a gross bet, and I’ll be sweating out one of the bottom teams in the league all season, but I couldn’t be more excited to do it.
